Near‐surface hydraulic conductivity of northern hemisphere glaciers          下载免费PDF全文

Ian T. Stevens  Tristram D.L. Irvine‐Fynn  Philip R. Porter  Joseph M. Cook  Arwyn Edwards  Martin Smart  Brian J. Moorman  Andy J. Hodson  Andrew C. Mitchell 《水文研究》2018,32(7):850-865

The hydrology of near‐surface glacier ice remains a neglected aspect of glacier hydrology despite its role in modulating meltwater delivery to downstream environments. To elucidate the hydrological characteristics of this near‐surface glacial weathering crust, we describe the design and operation of a capacitance‐based piezometer that enables rapid, economical deployment across multiple sites and provides an accurate, high‐resolution record of near‐surface water‐level fluctuations. Piezometers were employed at 10 northern hemisphere glaciers, and through the application of standard bail–recharge techniques, we derive hydraulic conductivity (K) values from 0.003 to 3.519 m day^?1, with a mean of 0.185 ± 0.019 m day^?1. These results are comparable to those obtained in other discrete studies of glacier near‐surface ice, and for firn, and indicate that the weathering crust represents a hydrologically inefficient aquifer. Hydraulic conductivity correlated positively with water table height but negatively with altitude and cumulative short‐wave radiation since the last synoptic period of either negative air temperatures or turbulent energy flux dominance. The large range of K observed suggests complex interactions between meteorological influences and differences arising from variability in ice structure and crystallography. Our data demonstrate a greater complexity of near‐surface ice hydrology than hitherto appreciated and support the notion that the weathering crust can regulate the supraglacial discharge response to melt production. The conductivities reported here, coupled with typical supraglacial channel spacing, suggest that meltwater can be retained within the weathering crust for at least several days. Not only does this have implications for the accuracy of predictive meltwater run‐off models, but we also argue for biogeochemical processes and transfers that are strongly conditioned by water residence time and the efficacy of the cascade of sediments, impurities, microbes, and nutrients to downstream ecosystems. Because continued atmospheric warming will incur rising snowline elevations and glacier thinning, the supraglacial hydrological system may assume greater importance in many mountainous regions, and consequently, detailing weathering crust hydraulics represents a research priority because the flow path it represents remains poorly constrained.  相似文献   

Analysis of nonstationarity in low flow in the Loess Plateau of China          下载免费PDF全文

Kun‐xia Yu  Lars Gottschalk  Xiang Zhang  Peng Li  Zhanbin Li  Lihua Xiong  Qian Sun 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1844-1857

An approach for nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis is developed and demonstrated on a dataset from the rivers on the Loess Plateau of China. Nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis has drawn significant attention in recent years by establishing relationships between low‐flow series and explanatory variables series, but few studies have tested whether the time‐varying moments of low flow can be fully described by the time‐varying moments of the explanatory variables. In this research, the low‐flow distributions are analytically derived from the 2 basic explanatory variables—the recession duration and the recession coefficient—with the assumption that the recession duration and recession coefficient variables follow exponential and gamma distributions, respectively; the derived low‐flow distributions are applied to test whether the time‐varying moments of explanatory variables can explain the nonstationarities found in the low‐flow variable. The effects of ecosystem construction measures, that is, check dam, terrace, forest, and grassland, on the recession duration and recession coefficient are further discussed. Daily flow series from 11 hydrological stations from the Loess Plateau are used and processed with a moving average technique. Low‐flow data are extracted following the pit under threshold approach. Six of the 11 low‐flow series show significant nonstationarities at the 5% significance level, and the trend curves of the moments of low flow are in close agreement with the curves estimated from the derived distribution with time‐dependent moments of the recession duration and time‐constant moments of the recession coefficient. It is indicated that the nonstationarity in the low‐flow distribution results from the nonstationarity in the recession duration in all 6 cases, and the increase in the recession duration is resulted from large‐scale ecosystem constructions rather than climate change. The large‐scale ecosystem constructions are found to have more influence on the decrease in streamflow than on the increase in watershed storage, thus resulting in the reduction of low flow. A high return period for the initial fixed design value decreases dramatically with an increasing recession duration.  相似文献   

江西地区地方性震级的量规函数与台基校正值研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

项月文  陈浩  肖孟仁  曾文敬  肖健 《中国地震》2018,34(1):122-132

本文采用《江西测震台网地震观测报告》,选取2007年10月~2015年12月所记录的499次M_L≥1.5地震事件,对各子台测定震级与台网平均震级偏差进行定量的统计分析,从震级偏差频次分布、量规函数、台基、方位角等方面分析产生震级偏差的原因。在对量规函数和台基进行校正后,震级偏差绝对值在0.2以内的样本数达到了68.6%,并给出了适合江西地区的量规函数和台基校正值。  相似文献   

2013-2016年乳山震群b值深度变化特征及意义     

申金超  徐波  张斌  苏道磊  刘晨 《地震地磁观测与研究》2018,39(2):25-32

利用双差定位方法，对2013年10月—2016年12月乳山震群进行重定位，并计算乳山震群中地震集中活动区域b值，分析其深度分布变化。结果显示：地震重定位后表现为近NW向集中分布；b值在震源深度7.4 km上下最小，反映该深度处应力最强；乳山震群b值并不随震源深度增大而呈系统性减小变化，且深度10.2 km以下无有效b值，进一步证实该震群近NW向发震断裂的存在。根据b值随深度的变化特征，推测断裂活动的高应力区域集中在6.5—10.2 km深度范围内，断裂活动在深度7.4 km处应力最强，且水平分布最广；相比上下两侧地壳介质b值在5.5—6.2 km深度层位明显增大，反映该深度层位介质性质存在明显差异。  相似文献   

水文干旱多变量联合设计及水库影响评估   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

涂新军  杜晓霞  杜奕良  陈晓宏  黎坤 《湖泊科学》2018,30(2):509-518

基于东江流域博罗站月径流数据,采用游程理论提取水文干旱事件.选用Meta-Gaussian Copula函数,统计模拟水文干旱指标的多变量联合分布.采用Kendall联合重现期和最大可能权函数,设计给定联合超越重现期的水文干旱指标组合值,并定量评估水库径流调节作用对水文干旱多变量联合特征的影响.结果表明:东江流域水文干旱历时、强度和峰值的统计优选分布均为韦布尔分布.干旱指标之间具有较高的正相关性,Meta-Gaussian Copula能够很好地模拟水文干旱指标两变量和三变量联合分布.基于任意两个变量联合设计和三变量联合设计,干旱指标设计组合值位于同频位置附近,且同一个干旱指标设计值在不同变量组合之间差别较小.水库径流调节作用对于缓解东江流域水文干旱效果明显,同一组干旱指标的多变量联合超越重现期在水库影响下明显变大.联合超越重现期越小,水库对联合设计值的影响程度越大.根据目前水库运行模式,若要满足河道内最小管理流量目标,联合超越重现期10 a一遇的干旱历时、强度和峰值依然达到了约3.89~4.04月、7.20~7.97亿m3和2.99~3.12亿m3.  相似文献   

基于EEMD-SARIMA的对流层延迟预测模型研究     

任超  刘中流  梁月吉  甘祥前 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(9):953-957

在无气象数据的条件下，提出一种基于集合经验模态分解（EEMD）和季节性自回归移动平均模型（SARIMA）的对流层延迟（ZTD）预报新方法，并分别选取长春、上海、乌鲁木齐3个地区4个季节的ZTD数据进行预测分析。结果表明，基于EEMD-SARIMA的ZTD改正预报模型能够满足不同地区、不同季节下的ZTD估计需求，是一种高精度的ZTD预报方法。  相似文献   

农机投入对农业GTFP影响及门槛效应的区域差异分析     

刘敏  姜会明  姜天龙 《地理科学》2020,40(12):2037-2045

按照粮食的产销情况，将全国划分为3类粮食功能区域，利用固定效应模型和门槛效应模型分析了农机投入对农业绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）的影响及门槛效应的区域差异。结果表明：农机投入对农业GTFP的影响程度存在区域异质性，农机投入对粮食主销区农业GTFP提升的促进作用最大，粮食产销平衡区次之，粮食主产区最小；农机投入对农业GTFP的影响路径亦存在区域差异，粮食主产区和产销平衡区的农机投入通过促进农业技术效率和农业技术进步进而推动农业GTFP提升，粮食主销区的农机投入通过促进农业技术进步推动农业GTFP提升；农机投入对粮食主产区农业GTFP的影响存在双门槛效应，对粮食主销区和产销平衡区农业GTFP的影响存在单门槛效应。  相似文献   

中国区域水资源系统韧性与效率的发展协调关系评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙才志  孟程程 《地理科学》2020,40(12):2094-2104

在界定水资源系统韧性概念的基础上，综合应用赋权法、SBM-DEA模型及发展协调度模型对2000—2016年全国31个省区的区域水资源系统的效率、韧性以及两者之间的发展协调关系进行评价。结果如下：① 中国区域水资源系统效率整体上处于非有效区，在研究期间呈现出在波动中上升的趋势。② 中国区域水资源系统韧性的平均值为0.39，总体水平较低，研究期间整体上呈波动上升趋势。③ 中国区域水资源系统效率与韧性的发展度总体呈现平稳上升—较快上升—急剧下降—上升的趋势，呈倒“U”型发展；协调度在研究期间呈现波动中上升趋势，大部分省区的发展度较好，而协调度较弱。④ 2000—2016年，水资源效率与韧性的发展协调度一直维持着“东?中?西”阶梯式递减格局，失调省区的数量降低，初级协调、中级协调、良好协调省区的数量逐渐提升，整体向协调趋势发展；空间格局上呈现由2000年倒“E”型对称式分布格局向如今北部围绕天津、中部围绕上海、南部围绕广东的三级格局演变，格局分布与中国三大经济区基本吻合，可知中国水资源系统效率与韧性的发展协调水平与经济发展水平之间有明显的关系。  相似文献   

全球海潮模型最新进展及在中国沿海精度评估     

范长新 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(5):476-481

介绍TPXO、FES、Chinatide、MIKE Global Tide、Utide等典型海潮模型，总结归纳其同化潮汐数据来源和最新的海洋地形数据，利用我国沿岸长期验潮站以外的26个中短期潮位观测站评估TPXO等海潮模型预报精度。结果表明，全球海潮模型对我国沿海M2分潮的预报精度普遍较低，且主导了几种海潮模型在中国海域的整体预报精度；相比MIKE Global Tide和TPXO7.2,TPXO8、TPXO_Yellow Sea 2010和TPXO_China&Ind模型在我国沿海的预报精度更高。  相似文献   

基于全球分布的地震观测数据估计0S0模态的特征频率及品质因子     

周丰森  王迪晋  旦增 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(10):1013-1016

选取2011-03-11日本MW9.3地震后全球地震台站记录的约220 h波形数据，基于一定的判断准则，筛选出质量较高的448个垂向观测数据，采用频域AR方法对0S0模态的特征频率和品质因子进行估值，并以信噪比为权重进行加权平均，得到特征频率f=0.814 658 4±5.3×10-7，品质因子Q=5 586±12。该结果与已有研究成果相比精度更高，有助于约束现有地球介质密度和衰减模型，使其更接近真实地球。  相似文献